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Author Topic: My latest candidate: Coeur D'Alene Mines TSX:CDM  (Read 791 times)
Mark Jr
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« on: September 16, 2008, 10:22:02 AM »

Coeur D'Alene Mines is a completely unhedged silver producer (with a bit of gold production) in places like the US, Australia, Mexico, South America, and a few others. Company site at http://www.coeur.com

They call themselves the largest unhedged silver producer in the world.

The basic premise is that the combined industrial and investment demand for silver outstrips production and the Coeur seems on the surface to be a beaten down silver producer (still trying to figure out why its a bit of a pariah in silver circles) The number of shares out has nearly doubled in the last 2 years, they went from something like 280M to 550M with the purchase of another property in Alaska I think.

Anyway, so far looking at the 2007 annual report  I have this:

WACC: 8.71% (I have them rated as BBB, high end of medium risk, Kd at 6.21%, equity risk premium at 5%, target B/V at 30% and B/V at 34.85%)

For NAV I have 3.23 and EPV of 0.17 and with a 70% probability of a catalyst (which I think is simply rising silver prices) we have an IV of 2.31 with an entry price of 1.62. Currently they are trading between 1.40 and 1.70 these days.

I also did a cursory analysis of their probable and proven silver reserves  "in the ground": Basically it's 216M ounces of silver in the ground at an average cash cost of $3.97/ounce. With $10.84 silver we're looking at $4 /share gross and  $2.69/share net.

They also claim 1.5M ounces of gold in the ground @ $758/oz grosses out to another $2/share but I haven't figured out their cash cost of gold yet.

They have 2 mines coming online in '09, Alaska and somewhere else.

So basically this looks like a kicked down dog to me that has every reason to be considered "undervalued", I'm still looking at it though. It makes me nervous that I'm the only person I've talked to who's even heard of these guys.
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Mark Jr
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2008, 10:03:35 AM »

Days like today I wish I pulled the trigger on that one already. Up 13.5% on the day so far. (Gold and silver rocketing today)
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